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Most importantly, Haigh has overtaken Freeman on the Valentine surplus.  Freeman trails Haigh by 100 votes and is in an almost hopeless position now.  Provided that the Green ticket holds anything like as well as it has in recent HCC elections, Freeman needs to catch Haigh just to stay in the race.  He only has the surplus of Burnet, and the preferences of Rowallan, Heatley, Alexopoulos, Brownscombe and Foley to do this on.  The first three mentioned will be useless to him and two of the remainder are small parcels.  He will have to close most of the gap off Foley, and this will be extremely difficult given that (a) votes will still be getting soaked up electing others (b) Foley’s voters may very well prefer Haigh, especially as their support bases are similar.

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