IT is an old rule of journalism that any leaked documents passed to the media should be treated with a good dose of suspicion.
And cynicism mixed, of course, with keen interest.
The first reason for scepticism is obvious: the documents or figures could well be fakes.
But, assuming the anonymous papers can be shown to be authentic, then any journalist worth their salt will automatically ask why the “leak” was made in the first place?
Occasionally, it’s clear the leaked documents are solely aimed at embarrassing or “getting back” at an individual or organisation by a disgruntled employee, former friend or someone harbouring a deep grudge.
In rare cases and this is when leaks are golden for a journalist the motivation for making confidential documents public is not revenge or disgruntlement, but down to the moral right of the public to know what is going on behind closed doors.
With no proverbial “axe to grind” the information is usually accorded a greater significance and standing by journalists.
However, in the vast majority of cases, leaked information is handed across for neither of those reasons. Blatant self interest is at work when secret documents in unmarked brown envelopes are deliberately mailed to a newspaper or dropped on a journalist’s desk.
The assumption behind these leaks is that some powerbroker, faceless person or “backroom boy” has decided there is a broader benefit for themselves or their organisation if the content of the confidential documents can be more widely and strategically published or broadcast, than they could possibly achieve themselves.
This week, details of the latest political polling and political focus groups carried out by the Tasmanian Labor Party were handed to the Mercury.
The figures, subsequently published on the front page as a “Labor surge back” article, told an interesting and newsworthy tale.
They pointed to early signs that Premier David Bartlett’s carefully crafted election strategy of appearing to listen keenly to public discontent, admitting mistakes and overturning unpopular decisions and policies followed by liberally throwing taxpayers’ money around in populist areas such as health and education might be starting to pay dividends.
The internal Labor polling figures, conducted by a national research company that works for every state Labor Party and the Rudd Government, indicated Labor might still have an outside chance of hanging onto power come the March 20 poll.
Clearly it was a message that Labor strategists were keen to air.
For a start, swinging voters can often be encouraged to feel pity for the least successful political party going into a short election campaign.
If one party looks like it is a clear outright winner well before the polling event, some voters will switch their support away from this glittering success story to the apparent likely runner-up.
It’s a sympathy vote of sorts and why almost all political parties in every state and federal election in recent years have been keen to portray themselves as “the underdog” albeit one in with a real chance regardless of actual voting expectations or their own copious data.
But if voters believe that a party is doomed to failure from the state as the disastrous EMRS opinion poll indicated for Labor in November they will continue to desert it in droves.
The pop psychology behind all this is that while no one loves a loser, or wants to be seen to be backing a loser, it remains an Aussie tradition to support the underdog.
So, the deliberate leaking of internal polling figures would seem to indicate Labor strategists want to seed the idea out in the electorate that a Labor recovery is in train.
Secondly, they wanted to be able to attribute the claimed resurgence of support for Labor directly back to Premier Bartlett who, as their own unleaked research is apparently showing, remains their best electoral weapon and chance.
The third idea behind the leak was to start spreading negative sentiment about the Liberal Party, and in particular its leader Will Hodgman.
The EMRS poll in November showed that Mr Hodgman is resoundingly, and threateningly for Labor and Premier Bartlett, popular with voters.
Some 40 per cent of Tasmanians want Hodgman as their premier, while only 28 per cent of survey respondents preferred the premier they’ve actually got.
In addition, internal Labor research based on questioning conducted with small groups of voters (focus groups) has revealed they like his simple policy messages of a four-lane Midland Highway and a massive new expansion of the downtrodden Royal Hobart Hospital.
But Labor’s focus group results also showed there were some chinks in Hodgman’s armour when all-crucial swinging voters were pressed more deeply about their views.
On Tasmanian Times:
Dr Kevin Bonham: “Interal polling” strikes again
Hag: The leak is the beginning of the story
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