50. Rosemary Armitage wins, thrashing McQuestin on both Clark’s and Bishop’s preferences and winning easily with a 56-44 overall margin. This is provisional but the number of remaining votes is too small to change the winner.
Currently Clark’s preferences break 55% Armitage 25% McQuestin 20% Bishop and then Bishop’s preferences break 72-28 in Armitage’s favour.
Posted by Dr Kevin Bonham on 08/05/11 at 04:33 PM
51. A two-candidate preferred count of Rumney is being conducted between Thorp and Mulder based on current votes. This will give us a very much better idea of the state of play when results of it are received. Another excellent Electoral Commission initiative.
Posted by Dr Kevin Bonham on 08/05/11 at 04:37 PM
52. Accomplished scrutineer Adam Clarke has posted “Mulder by around 500 votes.” on Pollbludger HERE. I suspect this is based on inside information on the progress of the indicative count, which if true would make Mulder extremely likely to win.
Posted by Dr Kevin Bonham on 08/05/11 at 06:06 PM
55.The current indicative two-candidate preferred result shows Mulder defeating Thorp (as predicted before the poll ( HERE ), but not as I actually expected on last night’s figures). The current margin is 1264 votes (53:47). What is remarkable is not only the strength of the preference flow from Mason to Mulder (78-19 rest exhausting) but that even the preference flows from Forster (73-23) and the left-wing ex-Labor candidate Clark (59-35) are extremely strongly pro-Mulder, while the Green preference flow is only very weakly pro-Thorp (53-42).
Thorp is gone and the only way Mulder could now fail, barring counting errors which at this stage are completely unlikely, is if so many preferences from Forster, Clark and Ann go to Mason ahead of Mulder or Thorp that Mason climbs into second. Mason’s share of these preferences as a percentage must exceed Mulder’s by 56 points for Mason to win. I think Mason may well close the gap to Mulder substantially on these preferences (especially Green voters may well prefer him to Mulder) but 56 points is too much.
I think it is good for Tasmanian democracy that even a government minister and two-term incumbent can still be booted from the Upper House by the voters.
Posted by Dr Kevin Bonham on 08/05/11 at 07:09 PM
Dr Bonham’s comments were made on this thread HERE. You can continue to comment on either thread.
First published: 2011-05-08 06:21 PM
• ABC Online: Thorp says seat loss likely
• Mercury: Labor crisis as Thorp loses
• Thorp admits electoral defeat
• CHILDREN & YOUNG PEOPLE MUST BE MINISTERIAL PRIORITY
Cabinet Size Must be Workable
Nick McKim MP
Greens Leader
The Tasmanian Greens today said that the Ministerial portfolios of Education and Children are crucial to the State’s future, and have urged that any Cabinet reshuffle resulting from current Minister Lin Thorp losing her seat, must be made in the best interests of Tasmania’s children.
Greens Leader Nick McKim MP said that the Greens believe Tasmanian children and young people will be best served by a replacement Minister being appointed rather than shrinking the size of Cabinet by reallocating these significant portfolio responsibilities to already fully-committed Ministers.
“Minister Thorp currently holds the Education and Children portfolios, which the Greens believe are major areas of responsibility and crucial for Tasmania’s future,” Mr McKim said.
“It is clearly in the best interests of our children and young people for a dedicated Minister to be appointed.”
“The Greens’ priority is that this decision is based on the best interests of our children and young people, rather than what may be perceived as the best interests of any political party.”
“Once again we are seeing the extent of the negative impacts of the cut in MPs numbers, and how Tasmanians are ultimately paying the price for that decision.”
