Image for Report from the end of the Stupidocene ... and the new Copenhagen Diagnosis

Well folks its Monday and here you have the old fossils demanding more the day before the negotiations between the old parties are announced having concluded the day before.

HERE

Stand by for a gift to the coal industry, they get your future climate stability.

Now it’s Thursday and we are simply waiting for the giving to get the nod.

Paul Kelly writes in the Australian that this is clever politics by Rudd, wedging Turnbull. 

He also writes “The scheme’s design raises doubts about whether the price effect will be sufficient to generate new investments in clean energy and secure the expected environmental dividend. The Greens will depict this as the ultimate sell-out. And the entire process risks the image of the government as a corporatist outfit based on deal-making lobbying.”

It’s not a prediction, it is the ultimate sell out to set the trading price for Carbon so low that there is insufficient change in emission volumes. Climate shifts are not like the weather, nice a few days later, and nor do they bend to politics, their is no return to the good old days for millenia. 

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Rudd supports the UNFCC target of 450ppmv, keeping the temperature rise under 2dC. This is the range of temperature increase of the Last Interglacial Maximum. It’s in the paleontological record, sea levels went up by 6m. 

To avoid climate shifts that threaten habitability of large areas the only solution is to reduce the volume of Carbon in the atmosphere and currently the only way to do that is to reduce emission volumes. 

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The only party to offer a policy to avoid a disaster are the Greens. Passing this legislation is much more than playing at politics, something the old parties fail to grasp. 

Once the reality of a future hotter climate reducing habitability dawns, the scrabble to change will cause huge economic dislocation and the chance of being effective is reduced closer to zero or even to a minus sum. This is Rudd’s failure.

Without a technological breakthrough the ongoing Carbon emissions that fuel the economy that props up civilization will give it the greatest headaches since the barbarians.

Goodluck future generations, your surely going to need it to make a Safe Climate.

Even if the Coalition votes down the CPRS legislation and Australia goes to a double dissolution the legislation is locked in now and only the unlikely event of a sudden enlightenment of the voters will cause change to occur in time.

It is now up to Copenhagen to set targets that trigger the 25% reduction in Australia’s Carbon Emissioons that looks none too hopeful.

In answer to those like Barnaby Joyce who wonder how the ‘extra tax’ of an ETS will stop businesses and people emitting Carbon, no one likes a tax everybody tries to avoid or minimize one.

Thursday …

And so the chant from The Australian goes on, with Sheridan playing the sensible man when on Foreign Affairs he is very opinionated. Perhaps he believes this but it shows how dangerous the denier’s false message on proof has been. The health of the whole world is threatened by this tobacco industry style reprieve for the fossil fuel industry.

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“In trying to evaluate this issue I have tried to gauge the seriousness of the key players. I’m not convinced that anybody in power anywhere really thinks this is an end-of-the-world issue. Certainly no one is behaving as if it is.”

This does not fail to make it an ‘end of the world issue’.  It only represents the behavior of old ideas and old power.

And what is that end of which Sheridan speaks in terms of the civilization he so stridently supports. Hard to describe exactly but we will see the pressure on global systems of international behavior and support put under increasing pressure as food aid demands rise and refugee flows increase.

Whether nations can avoid warring over resources or there is a rise in violent fundamentalism, there certainly will be an increasing sense of thereat to the power structures as they dig in like Australia’s fossil fuel industries.

Social license will evaporate like rainfall over the Murray Darling Basin, it will get hotter and hotter for carbon polluting industries and they will die like the Great Barrier Reef, their value falling like global fish stocks.

The mistake in not taking comprehensive, effective and timely action to reduce carbon emissions to 85% or more below 1990 levels by 2050 goes beyond simple environmental effects that some think a few handouts, a new heat pump and repetition of the lie we are following the science will address.

Society will change irreversibly and irrevocably as the climatic conditions that generated it change irreversibly and irrevocably. The Australian Stupidocene will continue.

And,

via Jon Sumby:

The ‘Copenhagen Diagnosis‘, a report by 26 scientists from around the world was released today. The report is intended as an update to the IPCC 2007 Working Group 1 report. Like the IPCC report, everything in the Copenhagen Diagnosis is from the peer-reviewed literature, so there is nothing really new. But the report summarizes and highlights those studies, published since the (2006) close-off date for the IPCC report, that the authors deemed most relevant to the negotiations in Copenhagen (COP15) next month. This report was written for policy-makers, stakeholders, the media and the broader public, and has been sent to each and every one of the COP15 negotiating teams throughout the world.

Among the points summarized in the report are that:

The ice sheets are both losing mass (and hence contributing to sea level rise). This was not certain at the time of the IPCC report.

Arctic sea ice has declined faster than projected by IPCC.

Greenhouse gas concentrations have continued to track the upper bounds of IPCC projections.

Observed global temperature changes remain entirely in accord with IPCC projections, i.e. an anthropogenic warming trend of about 0.2 ºC per decade with superimposed short-term natural variability.

Sea level has risen more than 5 centimeters over the past 15 years, about 80% higher than IPCC projections from 2001.

Perhaps most importantly, the report articulates a much clearer picture of what has to happen if the world wants to keep future warming within the reasonable threshold (2°C) that the European Union and the G8 nations have already agreed to in principle.

The full report is available at:

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org.