It may be premature to write off the chances of Tim Morris retaining his seat. 

The result of the West Tamar Elector poll on the pulp mill will be interesting. 

If a significant number of these residents vote against the mill and feel strongly enough about attempting to stop it this would translate into votes at the next election for the Greens. 

Given that TRAC has over a thousand members and that a recent petition to the Government against the construction of the mill contained over seven thousand signatures it is likely that some votes may move from Labor and Liberal to the Greens on the West Tamar. 

There is plenty of feeling against the mill in areas such as Kayena, Rowella, Deviot, Clarence Point and Beauty Point.  For example residents who live at Clarence Point already have enormous difficulties with their drinking water due to pollution from industry on the East Tamar which would only be exacerbated by a pulp mill.

Polls by organisations such as EMRS with small sample sizes across large electorates are unable to pick up the effects of regional issues such as the Pulp Mill.