IN 2002, with Israeli tanks firing through walls and smouldering buildings in Ramallah in the Palestinian West Bank, with Israeli soldiers shooting their way into the PLO compound, CNN’s Christiane Amanpour broadcast live-to-air in the foreground, standing on rubble amidst clouds of dust, making herself heard over the advancing Israeli attack.  Pointing to PLO headquarters behind her, where – she dramatically announced – President Arafat was holed up, she told the world that she had him on her mobile phone.  “Mr Arafat”, she said, “when are you going to call an end to Palestinian violence against Israelis?”

Three weeks ago, an Israeli court ruled that Israeli settlers in a Hebron house (West Bank) must return the house to its Palestinian owner-occupiers.  Settler violence broke out, and the Palestinian family was surrounded by rock-throwing settlers as Israeli troops stood by and watched.  Eventually the soldiers fired tear gas – at the Palestinians – and the settler women used the cover to gather up rocks in buckets and return them to the male settler rock-throwers.  I was watching all this on Al Jazeera from my hotel room in Jerusalem, with the UN prohibiting all ‘non-essential’ travel within the West Bank.  A couple of days later, I asked my son (in Hobart) if he’d seen any news coverage of this incident, and he told me that there’d been some brief footage of Palestinians throwing rocks at settlers!  It must’ve been a CNN report, but I didn’t ask.

I was reminded of these two events yesterday morning, when I went on-line to get up-to-date news of the deaths and destruction in Gaza.  First, Yahoo News – eight leading news stories, two of which concerned Gaza.  “US urges Hamas to cease rocket attacks on Israel”; “Missiles from Gaza deepest strike yet in Israel”.  As usual, no damage to Israeli life, and I had to look further down that report to see reference to more than 200 Gazans killed by Israeli jet strikes on the main Gazan population centre.  Palestinian life obviously continues to be cheap.

My first news of the Israeli attacks came whilst I was in a shop Saturday afternoon in Bethlehem.  The shop-owner informed me of the first Israeli hits, killing students in a secondary school during its graduation ceremony.  I later learnt that this was a school run by the UN agency which works with Palestinian refugees (the majority of the Gazan population are refugees).  A report in today’s The Australian seems to equate this with a Hamas military training institute, but maybe they’re not the same places and the UN school hit has simply been disregarded.  Israeli President Olmert has – of course – stated that Israel is “doing everything possible” to avoid civilian casualties, but the Al Jazeera TV reports on the spot from Gaza’s hospitals betrayed this absurd but readily received propaganda.

The Israeli hostilities will certainly last as long as the ruling Kadima party deems it necessary to convince the Israeli voters of their preparedness for ‘firm decisive action’ in the lead-up to February’s Israeli Presidential elections.  Likud opposition leader Netanyahu has recently gained much electoral support for his characteristic anti-Palestinian sabre-rattling, and many Palestinian lives must be sacrificed in the interests of this looming electoral contest.  Defence minister and third-trailing Labour candidate, Ehud Barak, should improve his chances now over Kadima party leader and foreign minister Livni, currently running second.

Palestinians are politically wedged themselves.  Presidential elections will not be held at the due time, as Fatah cannot be confident that Hamas will not receive overwhelming support.  Consequently, Hamas’s response to Fatah party President Abbas remaining on after his 9 January end of tenure is awaited with interest; Fatah needs Hamas to be seriously weakened by then.  The US Administration is happy to oblige a deferral of the democratic process in Palestine in order to better ensure the people vote the right way, given that they failed to do so in the last Parliamentary elections.  A precondition for this is that Hamas be removed as a viable contender.

Palestinians have already learnt the heavy cost of exercising a democratic decision, but continue to appear to prefer the purportedly ‘terrorist’ party.  This is primarily so because of its preferred record on local services and order, as well as popular support for resistance to Israeli reperssion.  Abbas’s comment about Hamas deserving what’s happening was shocking news for long-suffering Palestinians bearing the brunt of the ongoing conflict.  This likely damages his viability as a Presidential candidate, even if Israel and the US have him under strong pressure to speak thus.  (An Israeli newspaper report a few weeks ago carried a comment from a senior Israeli Defence Force officer describing Fatah as the IDF’s “sub-contractor”.)

The irony is that Middle East progress remained probably the only remnant of (potential) achievement of the outgoing Bush administration.  However, this depended upon Israeli and Palestinian compliance with the November 2007 Annapolis agreement.  Occupied Palestinian territory had complied, including cessation of rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel (despite Hamas being locked out of that agreement).  But Israel had taken this as an opportunity to reverse its obligations, so that Palestinian consequences of compliance had been increased lock-down of Gaza, with mere trickles of supplies, water, food and medications allowed through Israeli checkpoints that establish Israel’s continued effective occupation of Gaza despite an end to illegal settlements there.  In the West Bank, it had also increased the expansion of illegal settlements, barriers to Palestinian movement, and construction of the separation Wall/Barrier, despite Annapolis requiring and Israel agreeing to do the opposite.

During 2008, Palestinians paid a heavy price for compliance with Annapolis.  Israel was continually condemned for its breaches.  Turning up its heat on the Gaza pressure cooker finally worked.  Friday 19 December, Hamas ended its truce with Israel, rockets re-commenced, and Israel had its yearned-for pretext for a bloody attack.

One thing is already clear from the early international reaction.  Israel will again enjoy impunity for such violations of international law.  Presidential aspirant Livni said Sunday that Israel had “tried everything” to avoid such attacks, which can only be true to the extent that “everything” means isolating Gazans from decent living conditions, and escalating illegal blockade actions, even as Gazans continued to hold off its quite ineffective but symbolically defiant rocket firing.

For Bush – faced with the knowledge that Israel has single-handedly denied him his one saving footnote in history – there is no option but to turn on the victims, again.  For Obama – eager to avoid the ‘soft on terrorism’ and ‘pro-Muslim’ lines – things look even worse for the Palestinians, as a mere glance at his appointments of Chief of Staff, Secretary of State and Vice President attest.  The steady but sure Israeli takeover of the West Bank and repressive and punitive actions against Gazans is set to ratchet up a couple of more notches.  The very real danger now is that the ‘grand plan’ may include drawing Iran into the conflict.  Which is almost a Cheney/Clinton (Hillary) blueprint.

For the present, pressure is certainly on the Egyptian and Palestinian Presidents.  Abbas’s yearning for the destruction of Hamas as a political rival serves to strengthen Hamas and weaken Fatah.  Palestinians can only stomach so much of seeing him alongside Olmert and Bush as so many of their people suffer at their hands.  This now runs a serious risk of spilling over into the West Bank in the coming days.  West Bank businesses are already holding their third day of strike action today, but are unlikely to view that as suffficient protest against Israel or solidarity with Gaza.  Such an escalation will strengthen Israel’s desire to increase its military control there and further expand its settlement occupation.  At least the Bush Administration will be agreeable to these new conditions enabling Abbas to defer the democratic process until the outcome is more assured.

Egypt’s President Mubarak has worked more tirelessly and relentlessly than anyone at trying to hold the 2008 peace together, made more difficult by its small border with Gaza.  Hamas’s leader yesterday pointed out to the Egyptian people that the present situation is a critical moment in regional history, and will determine how history judges Egypt.  Indeed so.  Its continued formal recognition of and diplomatic relations with Israel, and key brokering role, put the spotlight on it.  It is unquestionable that President Mubarak is right now under enormous pressure from Washington, including from the Administration-elect.  The Palestinian people know from long bitter experience to expect no justice from having their fate remain in the hands of foreign diplomats and governments.

Meanwhile, as yesterday’s reports unfolded, Al Jazeera upgraded its reporting of Gazan deaths to more than 280.  Sunday is the single heaviest loss of life here since 1948.  And Yahoo continued to carry its reports of such mass deaths buried down a report of a rocket falling in an Israeli field.

For now, it’s reported to be 307 Palestinians and one Israeli.

Robert Johnson
Jerusalem
29 December 2008

Robert Johnson in Jerusalem, 29 December 2008
During 2008, Palestinians paid a heavy price for compliance with Annapolis.  Israel was continually condemned for its breaches.  Turning up its heat on the Gaza pressure cooker finally worked.  Friday 19 December, Hamas ended its truce with Israel, rockets re-commenced, and Israel had its yearned-for pretext for a bloody attack. One thing is already clear from the early international reaction.  Israel will again enjoy impunity for such violations of international law.  Presidential aspirant Livni said Sunday that Israel had “tried everything” to avoid such attacks, which can only be true to the extent that “everything” means isolating Gazans from decent living conditions, and escalating illegal blockade actions, even as Gazans continued to hold off its quite ineffective but symbolically defiant rocket firing. For Bush – faced with the knowledge that Israel has single-handedly denied him his one saving footnote in history – there is no option but to turn on the victims, again.  For Obama – eager to avoid the ‘soft on terrorism’ and ‘pro-Muslim’ lines – things look even worse for the Palestinians, as a mere glance at his appointments of Chief of Staff, Secretary of State and Vice President attest.  The steady but sure Israeli takeover of the West Bank and repressive and punitive actions against Gazans is set to ratchet up a couple of more notches.  The very real danger now is that the ‘grand plan’ may include drawing Iran into the conflict.  Which is almost a Cheney/Clinton (Hillary) blueprint.