Follow Tasmanian Times Psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham’s minute-by-minute analysis in the Comments …
See it unfold:
ABC: HERE
AEC: HERE
a href=”http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-194.htm” title=”Denison: The Wilkie challenge”>Denison: The Wilkie challenge:
Comment 10, 06:32 PM: First booth in in Denison and a tasty 18% for Wilkie at a booth he didn’t break 10 at in the state election. Nice start.
Comment 13, 6.52pm: Denison is quite interesting. The booths in so far include a lot of N suburbs booths and yet Wilkie is still in third place ahead of the Greens, and both Labor and Liberal primaries are being gouged. If this pattern holds up Wilkie is a serious threat …
Comment 15, 7.18pm: I am calling all seats in Tasmania except Denison as wins for Labor. On current figures Wilkie is doing very well in Denison – how long til the ABC notices?
Comment 18, 8.01pm: Couser and Simpkins are not far behind Wilkie, but he probably only needs to stay ahead of one of them. I doubt we’ll know the result of this one for a while. I did not expect there would be such a savage reaction from the voters to Labor’s taking of this electorate for granted. National picture: Coalition has now won three and ahead in two where Labor were favourites, as well as the Denison situation. Labor ahead in two where Coalition were favourites. We won’t know tonight but Labor’s majority is almost certainly gone and it is possible the Coalition will scrape an outright win.
Comment 23. 08.28pm: ABC awake! Stone the crows! But Wilkie is not up yet.
Comment 33, 9.08pm: ABC now calling Denison for Wilkie and I think he has very likely won but we still have to wait for postals and prepolls to make sure he stays ahead of Couser. WA results are now important – we almost certainly have a hung parliament but exactly how many seats will be crucial to who forms government. Labor deserve to lose Denison. They have taken it for granted and failed to adequately build profile for their preselected candidate.
Picture: Dr Bonham hard at work on the TT Tally Room table during the last State Election.
Comment 35, 09:17 PM: Tassie Senate 3-2-1. Goodbye to Guy Barnett! (definite call).
Comment 37, 09:35 PM: I still have 72-73-5 (72 Labor) as the average expected outcome. But there are some close seats we will have to wait a while for. It may well be weeks before we know for sure who will form government.
Comment 44, 10:22pm: In my view it is critical for Labor to find a 73rd from somewhere. If the Coalition has 73 then they are likely to form minority government.
More comments on Pollbludger: HERE
