Just think, we very nearly had Marti Zucco as a liberal(small L) as an election poster feature.
SEE, it could have been worse.

Richard Herr just on Southern Cross analyzing exit polls that suggest Greens could pick up a second seat in Franklin based on Nick McKim’s huge personal vote. Could be interesting.

Hello everyone.  Should have figures within next 15 mins or so - on pollbludger there is word of a Sky News “extrapolated” exit poll showing 10-11-4.  Haven’t seen it though and wouldn’t trust it without seeing the breakdowns.

#2TT: “Richard Herr just on Southern Cross analyzing exit polls that suggest Greens could pick up a second seat in Franklin based on Nick McKim’s huge personal vote. Could be interesting.”

We’ll see but if Nick McKim’s personal vote is huge then it will probably leak huge too.

We must be in bizarro land. Lennon is on ABC saying labor must talk to the greens, and have no other choice.

And the first booth is in! A massive swing from both parties to the Greens in Mawbanna though practically no-one appears to have actually voted there.  It will be a while before the figures appearing are any great amount of use or interest though the first Denison booths will be very interesting for the Wilkie vote.

Few connection hassles here so apologies for the delays.  Very interesting early booth in Denison - these tend to favour the Greens so don’t take too much notice of the high GRN vote. But things to notice - high Wilkie vote, high Burnet vote as %age of Green total, and Bartlett and Groom dominating their parties’ votes (however this may not hold up in other electorates).

Big vote for Shelton in early booths in Lyons but one of those was Bishopsbourne which is near his stamping ground.  Will be interesting to see if that holds up elsewhere or not.

High Green vote in Franklin so far won’t hold up that high the booths counted include some very Green votes.  Very high concentration in the leader which will give them a leakage problem if in the hunt for 2.

Braddon: The expected fight between Brooks and Whiteley for the second seat, should they only get two, is looking to be on.  Hiscutt not far behind but there are a lot of rural booths in the mix which may be helping her.  Greens off to a solid start there.

Denison update just on board with 1262 votes counted, and Wilkie on .72 quota.  But I doubt whether that will hold up when the big N suburbs booths go in.

Braddon is a touch interesting because the Libs are currently close to a third quota, Labor short of a second and Greens only just over one.  If that held up til the end of the night there would be a three-way fight for two seats, but I do not expect it to do so.  The Lib vote relative to the others should drop back a bit.

Greens now below two quotas in Franklin.  Not yet below two seats but it will head that way as bigger booths come in.

Bass is looking very 2-2-1ish with 20% counted though it is far from clear which of McLean, Webb, Wightman would win the second seat.  Can’t see McLean getting many Greens preferences somehow ;)

Oh, did I mention we are going to have a hung parliament? ;)

Greens okay in Braddon at the moment, they would want the Lib vote to keep dropping off though.

Lyons big update in now, nearly 30% done.  This too is looking like a more or less set 2-2-1 now and Shelton is going well to be the second Lib.

Labor would win second seat in Franklin if it stayed the same as now since the Greens would get done on leakage.  So that is trending 2-2-1

Denison update - 20% counted and Labor have shot up.  Bartlett and Bacon look like winning at expense of Sturges and Singh.  Wilkie still in the hunt but his vote will probably continue to fall.

Actually I would not write Singh off yet as it is not yet impossible for Labor to hold three in that seat with all the bits of quota floating around, if they can improve their position on primaries a bit.  But Sturges has definitely gone.  Don’t the voters know who he is?

Interesting the way that the election is reported as having some real meaning.

As if it were somehow exciting.

As if voting for clerks and lawyers will somehow produce people who can really manage our ports and health services.

As if the parties really represented the best ideas for Tasmania.

As if…

Big update in Denison but not much has changed.  At the moment it is very hard to call which out of Labor, Green, Wilkie would challenge the Libs for the final spot and this could be up in the air for weeks unless it settles to a different pattern by the end of the night.  Very intriguing current situation.

Greens still OK in Braddon but by no means home and hosed.

Franklin big update just up and Greens continue to fall back compared with Labor.  I am confident this will be 2-2-1 with the remaining interest being Mulder v Petrusma for the last Lib seat.

I don’t think I’ll be calling Denison til the end of the night, if at all on these figures.  So far the Greens are doing less well than expected and Wilkie therefore could thread the needle by beating them on Labor prefs then beating the Libs on theirs.  But there are not many good booths for the Greens left now, lots of Liberal and Labor booths.

Update in Braddon with Greens on 0.79Q, Libs on 2.71Q, Labor on 2.44Q.  This is not a secure position for the Greens yet though on current figures they would probably just make it.

Having watched all the ABC post polling coverage I must say I am impressed with the painfully honest assessment of Paul Lennon…goodness some time in the wilderness does us all some good.

Libs picked up a bit in Denison when Lower Sandy Bay hit the can but with over a quota between the Greens and Wilkie that one remains up in the air and probably will do for two weeks.

Rebecca White now leading David Llewellyn in Lyons but given Llewellyn’s profile she would want a bigger lead to hold him off.  Butler is gone, Shelton is still looking good for Lib 2 but depends on whether Howlett can catch him on Playsted’s prefs.  Pretty poor result for Hidding by the way.

In Braddon, Brett Whiteley is now well behind Brooks and in very big trouble unless the Libs can manage to get three.  They have just dropped back a little there.

Brief roundup of sitting members likely to be up and new members likely:

Lyons: Heather Butler defeated.  David Llewellyn in close race with Rebecca White.  Mark Shelton or Jane Howlett should be the new Liberal MHA.

Braddon: Brett Whiteley in great trouble from Adam Brooks unless the Libs can lift, if they don’t Paul O’Halloran will finally get up.

Denison: Graeme Sturges gone as is Lisa Singh.  Matthew Groom will be elected and may be joined by Elise Archer or Richard Lowrie, or it could be Helen Burnet or Andrew Wilkie.  We shall see!

Bass: Brian Wightman and Scott McLean in a close fight for the second Labor seat (Brant Webb not completely out of it either but I don’t think he’ll make it).  Michael Ferguson elected with an enormous vote.

Franklin: David O’Byrne will replace Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme.  It is yet to be clear which of Petrusma and Mulder will be the second Lib but with the amount of buildup for Petrusma I expect it will be her.

Missed Scott Bacon as a new Labor MHA in Denison from that roundup.

A big problem for Wilkie if he gets over the Greens will be that a significant percentage of Green votes will exhaust at 5, making the mountain he needs to climb to beat the Libs much steeper.  The Greens do not have the same problem if they stay ahead of him.

Will Hodgman just spoke.  I was surprised about that since he was speaking as putative Premier (on the grounds of a claim to 10-10-5 plus a plurality, the latter of which he has very clearly won) and therefore I would have expected to have heard from the supposedly defeated Premier first.

Looks like the Left-Right split within Labor has gone from 7-7 to 6-4.  That should mean Giddings for leader.  Will Bartlett spit the dummy?  Not if it means Lisa gets back.

As a roundup there are two seats in doubt at party level:

* Braddon, which will probably go to the Greens at this stage but they are by no means home and hosed and in particular they will need not to drop back on postals.

* Denison, where the last seat is between the Liberals, the Greens and Andrew Wilkie.  Wilkie has polled far better than I expected while EMRS massively overcooked the Green vote in its Denison samples yet again.  In my view it will be quite difficult for whichever of Wilkie or the Greens outlasts the other to get over the last Liberal on preferences (will need a flow much stronger than 2 to 1 at present, I think) but we will not know for some time.

If the Greens win Braddon and the Liberals Denison it will indeed be 10-10-5.

What were the great Labor advances that Bartlett was talking about? The great achievements?

Singing off now for the night, thanks all for your interest. (Braddon still a few votes to go, rest final for night).

In all my years of reading TT (and the occasional verbal joust with Dr Kev) I never knew he had a sense of humour.

#20 “But Sturges has definitely gone.  Don’t the voters know who he is?”

Brilliant!

Heap of shit speech from Bartlett, as for Hodgman,  appears to me that he may be even worse that Bartlett in regards to the Mill getting up ! 
    Also noticed that Lennon intimated that it was just waiting in limbo for a new start!  most obviously when world affairs are in better shape.

    As for Abetz ! who the f—-k invited him to comment, nasty little wanker !

    I reckon McKim has a hell of a job on his hands ! cos, we know that the two majors will get into bed on issues that are contentious,  so the balance of power means zilch.
                   
                    d.d.

Bartletts sly little snipe in regards to he and Hodgman both having partners appeared to me to be slinging of at Mckim whom ,  i’m not aware is married , single , gay , or whatever !  not that it matters ! cos i like his style ! however, bartlett appeared to me to be pissed off , BIG TIME !

  Any one else notice ?
               
                      d.d.

35.What were the great Labor advances that Bartlett was talking about? The great achievements?

“When I was right, the Party backed me and when I was wrong, the Party backed me.”

This statementnt shows that neither he nor the party can tell right from wrong.

That’s quite an achievement!

Don (#38) I had the same concern that it was a very odd thing to say.  For the record, to the best of my knowledge Nick’s partner is Cassy O’Connor and this was the subject of some media coverage last year after it was revealed (and it was appropriate to reveal it given the potential political ramifications).  That made Bartlett’s comment even odder.

Tassie is now officially DEAD.
You idiot voters have lost the plot.

Kevin, thank you for taking the time to keep us informed although I watched the box. I look forward to your analysis post poll declaration when the numbers are in and the cut up has shown trends, if any.

That 4 people wondered what Bartlett was on about with 2 for the price of 1. I much prefer the old labor saying, a fair days pay for a fair days work rather than some sour grapes.

It really is no matter of public concern provided a relationship is between consenting adult[s]. If moralists, such as Tony Abbott, expect to appeal widely they should get a new public line.

#42. Its a funny old thing but yesterday I took a call from a colleague who had read I was deceased. I rejoined with the classic reply - greatly exaggerated. You should start a newspaper, from that papers behavior lately there seems to be a vacancy appearing in the market.

#39, don, Kev’s being tactfully understated.
Bartlett was clearly having a dig at McKim for being a “homewrecker”. Bartlett just looked tragic, desperate, and graceless in defeat…
It was as if he were giving an Oscar acceptance speech, except he forgot he didn’t win.

Re #42:  The “idiot voters” won’t be reading TT, Sos.  Anyway, weren’t you moving to Adelaide some time ago?

41; At the risk of being another “me too”, I’d have to agree. His comment was the immediate topic of discussion in this household. The general conclusion being that it was a very snide point to make, especially in the circumstances.
It also showed that Bartlett really doesn’t have a clue as to why Labour is on the nose!

Claims by Michael Hodgman that the Liberal Party should now be allowed to govern Tasmania,
reinforce earlier impressions that he is out of touch and Matt Groom would probably now make a
better leader of the Tasmanian Liberals. The real result of the election is to be found more in
readers comment 33 posted late on election night most probably by the re-elected Greens member for Bass who also stated to ABC TV that same night, that the Tamar pulp mill project is now dead:
“33. Looks like the Left-Right split within Labor has gone from 7-7 to 6-4.  That should mean
Giddings for leader.  Will Bartlett spit the dummy?  Not if it means Lisa gets back.
Posted by Justa Bloke on 20/03/10 at 09:23 PM”

The reason why this prediction regarding the pulp mill is probably true is that David Bartlett
will now presumably step down as Premier as he is from Labor’s right faction. As mentioned in
the above readers comment, the balance of power with the Labor Party has now shifted to their
left. They will now form a power-sharing government with the Tasmanian Greens. Tasmania now has a much more left wing government and job security in the public service will be very much
greater than under the Bartlett government. That job security is likely to come at the cost of a
depressed private sector and higher state taxation. The state’s environment is likely to be now well looked after.

Can someone with local knowledge in Braddon explain how Brenton Best can attract enough votes to be elected again.  It just leaves me dumbfounded.

Bartlett slinging mud to the last!
Someone should give him a certificate for this great achievement. Shows how much of the dirty politics probably originated from him, though his ‘team’ got the blame.

d.d. No38 How eloquent thou art,and how bloody right!!!!!!!!!!

The only honorable thing for David Bartlett to do is resign once the count has finished and make way for Lisa Singh. Having been soundly thrashed, any agenda that he had prior to yesterday is dead in the water. He has not only lost the trust of the electorate but also his own party. Fall on the sword David, your political career is over.

disappointing to see lablor lose votes and seats but the old faces have remained.Tassie blamed labor for its woes but re elected the senior dinosaur laborites who would have been the major decision makers in the past twelve years.Go figure

You have to wonder how smart Bartlett is. He should have seen the shift in sentiment right at the beginning of his term. Very likely this train wreck could have been avoided, but it’s all for the good of Tasmania IMHO.

It was openly stated pre-election that “a vote for Labor or Liberal was vote for the Pulp Mill”.

On a 10-10-5 seat basis, that’s 80% vote for the Pulp Mill.

Even at the local level in Bass, 34.65% Labor, 42.86% Liberal and only 20.63% Green.

Time to get on with it !!

Tasmania has spoken.

Not as bad as Michael Field did but for this morning can you imagine Bartlett waking up and realizing that his hell is not over and that he may still be Premier. Bartlett as Premier appoints Green to a ministery and an immediate vote of no-confidence in Green is passed. Only possible 4 ministers available. Think about this folks with all the Newbies and Brenton Best not available and Polley demanding he stay as Speaker. So he appoints that nice blond pup from Lyons to Infrastructure. Whats he going to?
Hodgman wakes up and says ‘WTF happened, didn’t anybody realize were are still alive, after Cheek and Hidding’. Another 4 years in the wilderness, why do I exist?
McKim wakes up and say WTF only 4 and still going now where.

Sorry, Sam (#54), but the financiers don’t appear to share your enthusiasm.

My parole officer says that one of the worst aspects of this sorry schemozzle is the reduction in the numbers of women from 6 to 3 (possibly 4 if you count Petrusma).

(#54) Sam - open your eyes, mate - you are flogging a dead horse. It’s never going to happen - the business model was always totally flawed, the process by which it was approved was totally flawed and any would-be financial backer has taken one little look and left it right alone. Otherwise, Gunns would have announced a backer ages ago. Why haven’t they? There isn’t one and there is never likely to be one.

Even the Uber-Bogan himself seems to have gone a bit cold on the idea (who would have thought!) and thinks it should be decided by market forces. If that’s the case, then I have to agree with Kim Booth - it’s totally dead. Gunns just need to admit it to themselves.

(PS Are you Sam McQuestin?)

(50)
    Eloquent ?  how nice of you to say Phillip! however many would disagree including yours truly, i like to think that i just say it the way it is.

(38)
    Kevin ! thank’s for the return,  obviously ! i wasn’t the only one taking notice, i suspect that he was blurting out his obvious disappointment and embarrassment in regards to an outcome which let’s face it, anyone could have predicted ,  nevertheless it was entirely unnecessary and totally ungracious , which perpetuated my personal view as to his underlying character.

(48)
    Snowy ! can’t say i am familiar with Best except to say that i once accused him of being an alter ego of Kevin, having said ! my biggest surprise was that Llewellyn will survive , and if anyone needed to go it was him .

    It’s still early day’s , but there are a few new faces, “Groom”  for one !  who runs an alternative power company , which could make for some interesting day’s ahead and whilst listening to him speak , his eloquence , gave me the impression that he may well be a good future performer .
   
    One could not have expected anything other than what has transpired,  having said,  it appears that “Fred @ Marge Average” are AT LAST starting to take a LITTLE more notice of what and whom controls their lives, and not before bloody time !

                    d.d.

Sam #54.Tasmania has spoken?I thought it was more of a muted groan.

Sam, its up to Gunns to get the pulp mill up and I really don’t think they are up to it.

The pulp mill is dead and will never be built

Updated Electoral commission figures for Dension 5.15pm Sunday: Compared to the final Saturday night figures, Wilkie’s percentage of a quota has dropped from .51 to .50 while the Greens has risen from 1.46 to 1.47. The Liberals have held steady on 1.79 and the ALP’s dropped from 2.20 to 2.19. The Socialist Alliance is steady on .04.

#39. Yes Don I did notice the subtle but inappropriate remark about voters getting two for the price of one with husband and wife teams — Bartlett and Hodgman. I am still undecided about whether or not it was intentionally cutting, or as a result of circumstances of the day, tiredness and an inability to think and speak as an honourable Premier. I heard the speech more as one from David Bartlett the man who has just been kicked down, not as one from David Bartlett, Premier, which he still was.

It seemed to me that speech was one last bash. As a fellow human being I felt sorry for David Bartlett, a great deal had gone so wrong for him. I know what I would be saying to all those ‘mate’ advisors once I was off camera last night, and for all we know, maybe he did. Nonetheless, he could have and to my mind should have, changed the sentry some time ago.

It seemed Larissa Bartlett was well aware of her husband’s anguish as she appeared to offer him discreet comforting gestures. Good on her, it must have been an ordeal for her as well.

Time to get on with it indeed Sam.
Problem for you and for all the folks at woodchip communities Australia is that nobody including the proponent seems to want to get on with it.
WCA and contractors have waited 5 years for Gunns to start building the bell bay mill and now our members are starting to fall off.
Sam perhaps you could have a word to minister Tony Burke and ask if he will help pay. If Gunns isnt going to build it then maybe the new Liberal government will have to go back and talk to Sodma or eight dragons.

Yes the Greens have picked up significantly in both Denison and Braddon in that update, so there is some chance for them to yet get over Wilkie if they can keep gaining at that rate (bear in mind they need a substantial lead over him since they will lose votes on leakage.)

Sam, in light of your blind enthusiasm, please answer the following (just for starters):

Why are the Tasmanian members of the Gunns board under pressure to resign?

Why, given that there is currently a glut of paper on the world market, would any half-serious financial institution touch the mill project with a barge pole?

Precisely why did Gunns’ profits drop 98% in the six months to December 2009?

Tasmania has NOT spoken on the pulp mill; Tasmania is no longer interested, for the reasons offered by Rob #61.

I won’t further demolish your misguided post by asking you to explain the enormous surge in the Green vote at this election.

After the Sunday 5.00 p.m. update, in Denison and Lyons a Green is topping the polls, with O’Connor just pipping Bartlett and Morris ahead of Bruvver Polley (who has hardly ever articulated any personal policy position in his whole ‘career’).

#48, Yes, Best’s election(s) are a real mystery!  There must be something quite engaging at a personal level to make up for the obvious lack at a public level.  Perhaps he turns up to every event in Braddon with a donation in hand - much like Bruvver used to do when he was known in the Party as the Minister for Small Cheques!

Casey

Snowy #48
Despite the rest of the Tamanian peoples views there is that percentage of the Braddon electorate that seem to have held on to their Great White Dopes, in the devious forms of Bryan Green and Brenton Best.
The answer could only be the “Redneckian zest for believing in the Ghosts Ghouls and Goblins, for I see little else in the electorate where these 2 profligate preaching pathetics promenade.

Christ Lester! Give big Sam a break! We have some political divides, but not as much as we used to.

You guys at Wood chip communities are not happy chippies any more. What more can we do Barker?
We drew lines in the sand, heaps of them, kicked people off beaches to do so. We even paid for some of the pulp mill culverts.

We sent Airdy and Llewy overseas spruiking the project and Polly had a gardener along with some of those trouble makers arrested on Parly house steps.
And for what? We still can’t get the bloody mill to fly.

Stop throwing stones at fat Sam. You guys might like to try something different. Try milling timber.

Try milling timber! Where??

With reference to my post #68.
I had omitted to speak of the Greens Champions whom sought to clean out the ALP recalcitrants from their lairs.
The most difficult endeavor faced by the Champions for Change, was how to counter the offensive manner and methods employed by the 2 ALP despots.
Unfortunately, the good fight to win the hearts and minds in presenting honor honesty and integrity, was not enough to overhaul the dirty tricks and other nefarious methods so enthusiastically engaged in by Green and Best.

Our Greens candidates fought well, but for now must disengage from the battle-field without their victory, though standing proud and still firmly possessed of their honor and integrity.

Well done the valiant Greens candidates!

The Tasmanian Electoral Commission have added a note to their website stating that “Approximately 1,000 to 1,500 votes remain to be added in each division before the deadline for receipt of postal votes on Tuesday 30 March. These comprise overseas, interstate, provisional and postal votes. Updated figures will be posted at 5pm on Wednesday 24 March.”

Re #70
Where indeed? Gunns have bought and closed most of them down and sacked all the workers.

I was one of those voices warning my friends that a vote for Labor or Liberal would be interpreted as a vote FOR the pulp mill by people such as Sam #54.  Most of my friends sadly do not vote Green or read TT and they did choose to vote Labor (mostly) or Liberal for their own reasons. But Sam I can assure you that despite their votes they are still very clear that NOT ONE of them wants a pulp mill.

http://www.electoral.tas.gov.au/pages/HouseOfAssembly/HoA2010/Results/Denison/DenisonFirst.html

Updated Electoral commission figures for Dension 3.43 p.m. Friday:

Wilkie’s percentage of a quota is .51 while the Greens has risen to 1.49 (they were 1.46 on Sunday, while Wilkie’s was .51 Sat night and .50 on Sunday afternoon). The Liberals have held steady on 1.79 and the ALP’s has dropped from Sunday’s 2.19 to 2.18. The Socialist Alliance is now on .03 compared to .04 on Sunday.

Yes, the important figure here is the gap between Wilkie and Burnet, which can be computed as (Wilkie vote - Green vote + 1 quota).  This currently stands at 192 votes in Wilkie’s favour, and has been steadily coming down, but there are only a couple of days worth of postals to go.  My expectation is that during the cutup Burnet’s position will suffer by about 300 votes because of leakage out of the ticket by minor Greens candidates (some of it to Wilkie) but the Greens may gain 100-140 votes on Wilkie on the basis of the Socialist Alliance preferences.  What is unclear is whether the roughly .1 of a quota of non-exhausting leftover Labor votes (these will come from Lisa Singh) will break sharply in favour of either Wilkie or the Greens compared with each other, but I see no reason to believe they will break sharply either way.  So while the Greens’ position has improved on postals (as expected) it does not at this stage appear likely that it has improved enough.  The Liberals will probably be hoping Burnet does still beat Wilkie, as while Wilkie’s preferences won’t exhaust, they may not break sharply between Libs and Greens.

Helen Burnet’s primary vote is as usual excellent - it just doesn’t look like being quite enough.