Image for Where do jobs come from?

How sustainable jobs are created is a simple question, but perhaps the answer is not so simple, or that’s what many would have us believe!

There has been much public debate in Tasmania about the impact of public sector job cuts on the broader economy. Much if it stems from misunderstanding and how some people genuinely think economies work.

What is the evidence on creating and sustaining real jobs: jobs that do not destroy jobs elsewhere?

One view is that jobs can be sustained by deficit spending on public sector wages which, through retail spending by public servants, sustains other private sector jobs.

The opposing view (held by this author) is that jobs are created and sustained only by competitive businesses serving the needs of customers domestically and in the global market.

The unions have claimed a ‘flow on effect’ of 2.3 private sector jobs at threat for each Government job that is cut. The source of this estimate is a paper from the University of Newcastle commissioned by the Public Service Association of South Australia, entitled ‘The economic and social impact of staff reductions in the South Australian public sector‟ (2009).

The claim that 2.3 jobs in the private sector depend on Government jobs is based on input-output (I-O) multipliers. Such I-O multipliers are now discredited, even by their publisher, the Australian Bureau of Statistics:

“While I–O multipliers may be useful as summary statistics to assist in understanding the degree to which an industry is integrated into the economy, their inherent shortcomings make them inappropriate for economic impact analysis. These shortcomings mean that I–O multipliers are likely to significantly over–state the impacts of projects or events.”1

The University of Newcastle paper also argues that Governments’ budget policy should play a role in maintaining full employment to “overcome inadequate demand in the private sector‟ and that ‘it will usually be necessary to engage in deficit spending in order to maintain high levels of employment‟.

These claims are not backed by any peer-reviewed research and ignore the capacity of the State to earn income from interstate and international trade.

In addition, the use of I-O multipliers to imply any kind of positive economic impact of Government also ignores the fact that Government income is from taxation, which has highly negative economic impacts.

Let’s be abundantly clear. We are talking about the creation of sustainable jobs. It is reasonable to expect that public sector redundancies may be accompanied by temporary weakness in retail spending as household savings levels rise. But this affect will be only temporary and, as other research shows, will bring about the benefits of a long term improvement in economic growth and associated jobs.

Every dollar spent by Government is a foregone opportunity to cut taxes. The Australia’s Future Tax System (Henry) Review employed modeling which shows that the imposition of state taxes alone cost well over $250 million every year in lost ‘efficiency costs’, effectively shrinking the economy and destroying jobs.2

Supporting this, Leach (2003) provides a list of eight peer reviewed papers based on OECD data, which show that for every one percent rise in taxes, GDP is decreased by anything from 0.08 to 0.6 percent.3

Numerous other studies, including those published in peer reviewed journals, show that the net impact of Government spending is slower growth. For instance:

• A 10% increase in expenditure results in one percent reduction in GDP growth4
• Government consumption (excluding on education) has a negative effect on GDP per capita growth. Government investment has no effect5
• A 10% increase in expenditure reduces GDP growth by 1.4%6
• Government spending has a strong negative effect on productivity growth. Education spending has a positive effect. Government investment has no effect7
• Level of Government as a share of national income has a significant negative effect on GSP growth8 9 10 11

International evidence shows time and again Government spending, with some exceptions in high quality infrastructure and education, harms economic growth, productivity and therefore jobs.

What of the evidence closer to home?

In Tasmania, business confidence is strongly correlated with movements in State Government’s budget balance. Over the 12 years to 2009-10, the correlation is 86 percent. In turn, there is a 50 percent correlation between business confidence and subsequent growth in investment. Private investment is the pre-condition for competitiveness and sustainable jobs creation.

In contrast, there is a strong negative correlation between total government spending and business confidence, as shown in Figure 1. Prior to the global financial crisis, State Government total spending increased 31 percent over the five years to 2007-08, yet over this period the business confidence index collapsed as budget surpluses were eaten away.

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Source: Tasmanian Budget Papers; TCCI Survey of Business Expectations.

Critics could rightly say ‘but correlation alone does not imply causation’.

We can safely assume Treasury does not consult the Survey of Business Expectations to determine the budget balance each year. But the reverse does make economic sense: businesspeople, local investors and foreign lenders, who decide whether or not to invest in Tasmania, are highly sensitive to the State Government’s fiscal management and are attuned to the importance of sustainable budget practice.

Put simply, strong budget surpluses encourage business confidence that in turn promotes investment which creates sustainable and long-term employment.

The evidence presented here should be enough to reinforce the need to cut unsustainable Government spending to ensure real jobs growth.

But, we have not even begun here to estimate the likely jobs destruction caused by a Tasmanian credit rating downgrade and higher costs of debt servicing that would accompany a failure of the State Government to rein in spending now.

This is a major risk now confronting Tasmania and will harm employment creation further.

Refs
1 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2010) Cat. 5209.0.55.001 - Australian National Accounts: Input-Output Tables.
2 KPMG Econtech (2010), CGE Analysis of the Current State Tax System (p.5 average excess burdens applied to Tasmanian tax revenue. See also TCCI Submission to State Tax Review.)
3 G Leach (2003) Negative Impact of taxation on economic growth – UK Reform
4 Gwartney, Holcombe, Lawson, ‘The Scope of Government and the Wealth of Nations’, Cato Journal, Vol. 18, No. 2 (Fall 1998)
5 Barro, RJ (1989), A cross-country study of growth, saving, and government. NBER Working Paper No. 2899.
6 Engen, EM & Skinner, J (1992), Fiscal policy and economic growth. NBER Working Paper No. 4223
7 Hanson, P and Henrekson (1994), ‘A new framework for testing the effect of government spending on growth and productivity’, Public Choice, 1 (3-4), pp. 381-401.
8 Smith, D (1975), ‘Public consumption and economic performance’, National Westminster Bank Review, November, pp. 17-30.
9 Saunders, P (1985), ‘Public expenditure and economic performance in OECD countries’, Journal of Public Policy, 5 (1), pp. 1-21.
10 Landau, D. (1983), ‘Government expenditure and economic growth: a cross-country study’, Southern Economic Journal, 49 (4), pp. 783-92.
11 Cameron, D. (1982), ‘On the limited of public economy’, Annals of the Academy of Political and Social Science, 459 (January) pp 46-62.

Earlier on Tasmanian Times: Saul Eslake: Annual Report on the Tasmanian economy

Meanwhile in Melbourne today: Launch of Economics for Life