Mr Gutwein ...By CRIKEY14. Can Tasmanian Liberals see the wood for the trees? Crikey has been fascinated with rebel Tasmanian state Liberal, Peter Gutwein, ever since he found himself on the front page of Launceston's The Examiner in December 2002, photographed sitting on a huge log and calling for the end of clearfelling in old growth forests. The political wisdom - even more so since the federal election - is that these sort of antics mean death in Tasmanian politics, but Gutwein still seems to be breathing. Indeed, he has managed to establish himself as one of the few true conviction politicians going around. Can he keep it up? The Examiner piece occurred just six months after the last Tasmanian election, where only seven Liberals were returned. The new leader, chainsaw lover Rene Hidding, happened to be overseas at the time so the stunt and the timing got the pundits buzzing over an early leadership challenge. Nothing, though, has happened. Gutwein has struggled to get support amongst his party colleagues. This has not stopped him positioning himself as a conservative moderate, not only on forestry, but also on child protection, an issue which provoked Gutwein to cross the floor 12 months ago and vote with the Greens for an enquiry into institutional child abuse. Hidding dumped Gutwein to the backbench, but reinstated him at the first parliamentary session of this year with the portfolios of Education and Police, considered a comedown from the heavyweight Treasury brief he had previously held. Gutwein, however, has made the most of it. While being careful not to clash publicly with his leader, he has been busy stamping himself as the heir apparent in the public's (if not his colleagues') eye. He has showed up the previous holder of the education portfolio and chief leadership rival, Will Hodgman, by continually forcing minister Paula Wriedt onto the defensive over issues as diverse as curriculum reform and teacher retention. But he has also scored heavily in the police portfolio, running a populist campaign against traffic offence quotas which the meeja have gobbled with glee. Gutwein’s public profile has been greatly strengthened by the free publicity. This is the final week of Tasmanian state parliament for 2004 and, for the Liberals, ends just about how it started - with the party stuck on just 25 per cent primary support. Labor is polling double that. Hidding is almost invisible in the electorate and Gutwein is enjoying possibly the highest profile of all Liberal members. This week’s sittings will deliver a double dose of deja vu. Just as they did this time last year, the Greens intend to table a motion calling for an urgent commission of enquiry into institutional child abuse. What will the Liberals do? Gutwein cannot afford to back down and risk his reputation. Hidding cannot afford another Gutwein revolt - that would surely put an end to his leadership - but if he agrees to a conscience vote or supports the motion, it will look like (and in fact be) a victory for Gutwein. The other five Liberals have been galled by Gutwein's maverick behaviour. All they have wanted is to get thorough this term as a coherent opposition and put space between themselves and the 2002 election debacle. Gutwein's continual spoiling tactics have not allowed this to happen. But from a public perspective it seems as if Gutwein has politically outflanked Hidding. It remains to be seen how the final days of parliament pan out, but it looks like going into the silly season that Gutwein will hold the position as the most effective Liberal foil to Paul Lennon's Labor government.
... from Crikey's AM Sealed Section, Nov 24.
RAPID RESPONSE EMAIL: What do you think? Wednesday, November 24, 2004 |