A serve for the Commentariat (1): Feints dressed up as analysisBy phill PARSONSI could not believe my eyes. Such erudition from the Hobart commentariat. This must be the most banal analysis of the feelings of Australians I have read for some time. [Premier feints to win points, Comment by Ellen Whinnett, Mercury, 17SEP04]. It is on the edge of the chardonnay socialists and latte left analysis from the rabid right for any policy that contains a spec of humanity. Labor’s city electorates can hardly be viewed as wealthy, the wealthy ones are blue coloured on the ABC website, you know Liberal, like Bennelong [Howard Liberal, margin 7.7%, Green primary vote 2001 4.0%]. This time Howard faces Wilke [Green] formerly of the Office of Newspaper [National] Assessment and of the no intelligence to back up siding with Bush fame and Valder [Independent Liberal] and former head of the Liberal Party, who can spot a lying little rat. With the watermelon vote growing exponentially in the polls both the old parties need to take action. Garrett [Green Primary Vote 2001 7.3%, margin 8.9%] was put in Kingsford-Smith for a reason and a journalist keeping abreast of the news would know why. Today Howard fingered it. He does not need Brown to okay the Liberals green credentials. Latham was quick enough to get a poodle before the election. Lindsay Tanner holds Melbourne [Grn 15%, margin 19.9%] and Michael Danby Melbourne Ports, [Grn 11% margin 5.7%]. According to Whinnet [Mercury 17 SEP04] the Greens huge vote in Denison the last state election puts Hobart in the category of a wealthy mainland city. There is a reason why Duncan Kerr [Grn 10.5%, margin 14.7] opposes the logging of high conservation value forests and he will be re-elected. Quick [margin 8.0, Green 9.7%] is, as usual inexplicable. Bass with a 2.1% margin a 2001 Green vote of 6.2% and also a newly elected Green state member must have Labor in a decision making pickle. Note for Adamski and Sidebottom, your time is up, your margin will shrink. A seat I am personally familiar with, the home of outcasts - Warringah - the sitting member, Abbott [Liberal] has a margin 12.7% and a Green vote of 3.7%. It will be interesting to see, now that the independent McDonald [Independent 27.8% of the primary vote in 2001 and now Mayor of Manly, remember - No Smoking on the beaches] what the Greens poll. Recently, a bbq in that electorate raised $25,000 to save some trees somewhere, so as it also blue coloured on the map, this must be a truly wealthy seat. Or let us take the Nationals, green on the outside, bitter on the inside. Page in the seat of Causely has a margin of 2.8% and in 2001 the Greens polled 7.2 % of the vote, or Anthony in Richmond with a margin of 1.7% and the Greens with 10.1%. All before Howard joined Bush in the attack on Iraq. Whilst the Greens share of the vote in the polling has doubled, this may not reflect the case in the lower house seats, but were it to reflect in Causley and Richmond the incumbent Nationals would have a difficult time given that Green preferences don’t usually flow to the home of rural reaction. And then there is Whinnet’s failure to provide the evidence of this massive wealth in the inner city seats that have Labor targeting them. Why is Labor targeting its own seats, Prospect has a margin of 12.6% and a Green primary vote in 2001 of 4.0%, the Green vote in the Liberal seats was low. Has something changed, what does the secret party polling tell. Perhaps that is not inner enough or perhaps, just by chance, people have noticed that their planet is going to the dogs and want some action. People should read the recent speeches of the Labor and Conservative and indeed Liberals in the United Kingdom. Europe has noticed and a couple of more hurricanes and the US may awaken from its know nothing slumber as well. A very poor repetition of the perceived wisdom of the press gallery spoon fed to them by some party hack. At least Whinnet isn’t kicking her own class, the middle. Has that too changed, more analysis required here when labor okays incomes of $85,000 per annum, something has shifted. Come on, buy some statistics from the Bureau, look at the websytes, do some in-depth with the party hacks and your own thinking. One thing from the article rings true. That the old parties “are relying on leaks and speculation to test public opinion, while watching each other closely, before finalising their policies” and another is a furphy as old as fossils, that “saving Tasmania's forests will win over environmentalists who live elsewhere and won't suffer any financial impact if old-growth logging were to end”. The Franklin Dam compensation package funded growth in the Tasmanian economy but more importantly saved it from ruinous debt and a glut of electricity. The only Tasmanian forest policy before us, that of the Greens offers a $92 million transition with additional employment to move out of logging high conservation value forests. The old parties will offer funding, they want the votes from industry, even if they are a preferential one. It is, after all, the lower house that forms government and the single member electorate system favours the old parties. phill Parsons 'has been busy with the economy but could not let this one through to the keeper. He awaits the release of the old parties' forest policies and then the 9th of October. On the Manly side the beaches are marginally cleaner, the surf a little warmer the latte’s just great and Barr’s office is as welcoming as McDonalds was'.
AN ADDENDUM: For those not familiar with the quota system of election for the 6 Senators from each state now facing a half Senate election and then waiting until June 2005 before taking up their seats, here is what it means: To be elected you need a quota and that is 16.6’ % of the vote of all the electors in your state. [sorry Pauline your time is past], 2 and its 33.3’ and half the votes for 3. If Labor does not have the numbers for a full quota all the above-the-line votes go to the Greens along with the below-the-line votes that number the Greens next. This preferential cut up could, of course fill a quota for, for example, the 3rd Labor candidate but it may get a Green across the line ahead of a Liberal or Australian Democrat as well. I am not sure a Family First preference will go to Democrat Greig in Queensland, the voters for Family First only have to work below the line to stick with their anti homosexual agenda, but in South Australia this preference deal may be important. Of course Labor may be thinking that the Senate will not be dominated by a minority but methinks it is a sign of the maturity of the Australian electorate that it will be for some time yet. Labor believes the Greens are more likely to support them in the Senate and possibly be tricked with a GST like conundrum. Also Labor can always vote with the Liberals, or force the Greens to, again and again and again. But that is a later bedtime story. Among the unallocated marginals Adelaide, Bonner, Chisholm are inner city and Ballarat, Herbert, Eden-Monaro, Hinkler, Gippsland, McMillan, Bass and Bendigo aren’t. The allocated must be heavily inner city for Whitten to prove her point. phill Parsons must return to the first story of the day. He hopes that this reading will improve life for the many but is having difficulty with his faith in the goodness of such lumps. Drizzle with a cloudy day and low surf.
WEBSITE PRIMER: AND The ABC's creative ANTONY GREEN and his Election Guide ... Hit the Top Stories link on tasmaniantimes.com's New Desk links and there's Antony looking very cute in the top right corner. He's hard to beat ...
RAPID RESPONSE EMAIL: What do you think? First posted Saturday, September 18, 2004; addendum written Sunday |